When we talk of different kinds of waves, the first wave that strikes us is “Modi Wave”. This wave had shattered the dreams of the dynasty politicians. May 16th 2014 was the day when the hopes of billions of Indians got wings. It was said that BJP emerged victorious just because of the hype created by Modi and nothing else. Modi was successful enough to impress the people but no one can deny that it was RSS that worked relentlessly to foster the “Modi Wave”.
The analysts had given out the verdict that a party that is led by Rahul Gandhi has failed to attract voters. This was justified as the BJP alone was successful in crossing the required seats to form the government. Its coalition NDA secured 336 seats.
After looking at the results, it appeared like huge number of voters embraced BJP after dumping Congress.
Did the Congress supporters really dump it and joined BJP? Did the Congress party leaders lacked leaders? Let us analyse all the factors in order to find out what led to BJP’s clean sweep and Congress party’s miserable performance.
Scams, minority appeasement and soft corner towards terrorists forced the Congress supporters to migrate?
The word loyalty is applicable not just in personal relationship but also in politics. Once the loyalty inclines to a certain party or its ideologies then a person gets stuck to it throughout his/her life. But even after so many scams and comprises on national security during the 10 years of UPA tenure, would all the Congress voters opt for it again?
The answer is yes!!!
Even though the Congress literally looted in every possible government schemes, it didn’t affect its loyalists.
By looking the above graph, one can say that Congress was successful in retaining its voters from past 18 years. During 1999 elections, 10.31 crore voters has casted its vote in favour of Congress and in the year 2014 it increased to 10.69 crores. It clearly shows that there is no shift in voters.
The Congress increased its voters but the seat share fell drastically, Why?
In the year 2004, it had won 145 seats but in the year 2014 it secured 44 seats even though its voters increased. So what went wrong? How did AIADMK manage to win 37 seats with just 1.8 voters while the Congress got 44 seats even though it gained 10.7 crore votes?
“First past the post”
This theory was responsible for BJP’s defeat in 2004 elections even though the governance was really good under Atal Ji.
Look at the above graph which compares the vote shares of BJP and Congress party. It clearly shows that BJP had gained nearly 10 crore more votes when compared to 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
Now the question is that who are these 10 crore voters who casted their votes in favour of BJP? Yes, this question arises because there was no migration of voters from the Congress party. In simple sense, the voters didn’t punish the Congress party.
In just 5 years, how BJP gained 10 Crore New Voters?
Look at the below mentioned table that indicates the total voters in various course of time.
From 1999 to 2009, there was no significant rise in the total voters but from 2009 to 2014, there was a huge boom in the voters. Almost 10 crore new voters had entered the electorate system.
First possible reason that strikes our mind is that the additional 10 crores voters were the new voters who casted their votes for the first time. To prove this theory, we need to go few years back. If there was any baby boom from 1991 to 1996, then there was a possible change that majority of them voted for BJP. But when we analyse the birth rate, there was no baby boom and in fact there was a declining trend in the birth rate.
Who are these 10 crore new voters?
Let us go 7-8 years back and at this point of time hardly any youths were interested in politics. Politics was considered as a subject only for the retired persons or those who crossed 40 years of age. On the day of election, youths considered it as an opportunity to chill out. They had not realised the worthy of their one vote.
Whenever the society shifts to modern life style, there are high changes that they don’t participate in the electoral process. Even the United States witnessed this scenario. They tend to return back to politics only when there is a revolutionary movement in the nation.
The youths were highly interested in politics during the 1970s when Indira Gandhi started to misuse her power. During the emergency period, lakhs of youths were jailed and there emerged a grudge against the ruling government. Due to this, even a common man actively worked in elections in order to defeat the ruling party.
Later during the 1980s, there was a huge protest against Rajiv Gandhi government as it was indulged in several scams. The main scam that strikes our mind is of Bofors. But after that, there was no such large scale protest against the government.
The nation saw a growth in IT field and gradually youths disengaged themselves from politics. When the UPA came to the throne once again in the year 2009, the scams boomed like never before. When the government was questioned, it did not have the basic sense to justify or give clarifications regarding the same.
Finally leaders like Baba Ramdev and Anna Hazare had to come to the mainstream to invoke the youth against the massive corruption that took place in the government. Dr Subramanian Swamy became a national hero after exposing the 2G scam.
India hasn’t forgotten how the youths across colleges came out on street to protest against the corruption. This was successful in pulling back the youths into politics. Later this was smartly capitalised by Mr Arvind Kejriwal who went on to win the 2013 Delhi state election. But his one mistake ruined his political career. Yes, he had resigned within weeks after he came to power. Due to this, people lost trust in him and he lost an opportunity to tag his party (AAP) as a national party.
How Modi gained trust of the youths?
Even though Modi was in his early 60s, he was successful in gaining the trust of the young generation of the nation. Youths trusted his promise of giving a corruption free India and transparent governance. The oratory skills highly impressed the youths as it invoked anti-Congress waves among the people who did not incline to any political party.
Rahul Gandhi, who was projected as a youth icon completely failed to gain the trust of youths. The Congress government didn’t handle the Nirbhaya rape case rightly as the protestors were man-handled by the police at Delhi.
The major cause of BJP’s victory was that it was successful in gaining the trust of the youths who stayed out of the electoral system. Meanwhile the Congress didn’t lose its vote base.
Everyone knew that youths can transform the nation but the youth-power was given a right direction only by PM Modi. His style of administration attracted the people who didn’t like politics. Due to this, in a span of just 5 years, BJP was successful enough to gain 10 crore new voters.