The survey, conducted in October and December last year, shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetisation move has had no impact on voters, and has instead increased the BJP’s vote share.

Only recently we reported that Rajdeep Sardesai (http://postcard.news/rajdeep-sardesai-announces-bjp-clear-winner-elections-later/) has declared BJP majority in UP elections. Seems that his opinion is also influenced by the India Today opinion poll; conducted earlier in October and December in 2016.

Interestingly, one part of the opinion survey is before demonetization and the other is, post demonetization. Unlike most of us perceive that ‘black money’ is PM Modi’s ace, this poll reveals that-demonetization doesn’t really seem to affect the on-ground scenario.

On the contrary people, who we presume to be visibly upset with demonetization, are also in support of BJP. How else, can we put logic to the fact that; BJP vote share is higher in December (33%) in comparison to October (31%).

It is definitely demonetization-proof, and to an extent, free of the recent Yadav clan split.

This 33% and 31% vote share means majority number of seats in UP assembly. It translated into 206-216 seats for BJP, out of the 403 seats.

This is a whopping increase in comparison to the last UP assembly election in 2012. Last time, BJP had 15 per cent share, accounting for 47 seats win.

However, the real election phase is expected to be driven by Modi’s development plan. It will be a litmus test for his demonetization drive too, as it has been his principal politics in the recent past.

Interestingly, the opinion poll states that Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav emerges as a clear choice for the next CM with 33 per cent of those surveyed wanting him to return to power.

The recent decision by Supreme Court-to not campaign on basis of identity politics- is likely to shift people mindset towards relevant issues. Hopefully, there will be no ranting by netas on caste, religion, community, or language, during their rallies.

The UP assembly elections dates have been announced. India’s most populous state will go for voting on February 11 and till March 8. March 11 is the vote counting date. .

SP is expected to have a 92-97 seats and, BSP 79-85 seats. Expectedly, Congress is likely to have 5-9 seats. The other parties in the state – Rashtriya Lok Dal, Apna Dal, the Left and others – might win 7-11 seats.

(Inputs from India Today)


Pooja Bhatia

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