Politics

A mindblowing analysis by an Engineer! After today’s bypoll results, if you still think PM Modi has lost, then you are wrong! Here’s why

Another journalist from the left leaning news channel was heard saying today “Finally the Modi wave has collapsed in India after the opposition united”. Few even said that the opposition will totally demolish the Modi government in the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Today the results of 4 Lok Sabha seats and 11 assembly seats were declared. The elections had taken place in 10 states and earlier it was said that the BJP and its ally won in 2 Lok Sabha seats and in 2 other assembly seats. Whereas the Congress and alliance won in 2 Lok Sabha seats and 6 seats assembly seats and the others had won in 3 seats. But you’ll be stunned to know that BJP has left its mark in all the 15 (4 Lok Sabha + 11 assembly) bypolls.

11 Assembly seats:

The assembly seats where the by-elections were held were Noorpur (Uttar Pradesh), Jokihat (Bihar), Tharali (Uttarakhand), Gomia and Silli (Jharkhand), Maheshtala (West Bengal), Ampati (Meghalaya), Shahkot (Punjab), Palus Kadegaon (Maharashtra), Shahkot (Punjab) and Chengannur (Kerala).

4 Lok Sabha seats:

Kairana, Nagaland, Palghar and Bandara Gondiyan in Maharashtra were the Lok Sabha constituencies that went for elections days ago.

What happened in Kairana parliamentary constituency?

Kairan was the centre of attraction in today’s counting as it was vacant after the death of BJP MP Hukum Singh. The BJP had fielded Hukum Singh’s daughter, Mriganka Singh and the united opposition had fielded RLD’s Tabassum Begam.

Let’s have a look at how the BJP performed in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections!

Candidate Party Votes
Hukum Singh Bharatiya Janata Party 565909
Nahid Hasan Samajwadi Party 329081
Kanwar Hasan Bahujan Samaj Party 160414
Kartar Singh Bhadana Rashtriya Lok Dal 42706
Divakar Kashyap All India Trinamool Congress 6562
Krishanpal Independent 2971
Sunil Kumar Kasana Aam Aadmi Party 2663
Mohanlal Independent 1741
Ramkaran Kashyap Bhartiya Vanchitsamaj Party 1378
Pardip Bahujan Mukti Party 1050
Sunita Janata Dal (United) 946
None of the Above None of the Above 3903

But today, after the final result was announced, the Rashtriya Lok Dal won by 55000 votes in Kairana over the BJP candidate. But this was not a defeat of BJP. Here’s why!

  • But this is not a defeat of BJP because even after each and every opposition parties teamed up, they couldn’t majorly dent the BJP’s vote share.
  • It is said that there are nearly 34 percent of the voters are of Muslim community. It should also be noted that Kairana is the same place which underwent mass Hindu exodus years ago. The Hindu voters were BJP supporters and this helped the opposition to reduce BJP vote share.
  • We also cannot deny the fact that BSP, SP and RLD holds its own vote share on the basis of caste.

Palghar in Maharashtra:

  • In this Lok Sabha constituency, the BJP’s Gavit Rajendra Dhedya was successful in winning against Shiv Sena.
  • The BJP candidate had won 44,589 votes.
  • The election was necessary as 67 year old BJP’s sitting MP Chintaman Wanga  died on 30 January 2018.

Nagaland Northern Angami-II:

  • In this Lok Sabha by-Election BJP backed front won the lone parliamentary seat in Nagaland.
  • Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) had a clear majority against the Naga People’s Front (NPF) in this bypoll.

Bandara Gondiyan in Maharasthra:

But the BJP was not successful in retaining the Bandara Gondiyan Lok Sabha constituency as the NCP succeeded in defeating the BJP candidate.

Below are the 11 Assembly seats that were declared today!

  • Shahkot in Punjab:

Hardev Singh Ladi of Congress won this constituency and this was previously held by Shirimani Akali Dal.

  • Silli in Jharkhand:

JMM succeeded in retaining its spot.

  • Gomia Jharkhand:

Even here JMM succeeded in retaining its spot.

  • Rajarajeshwari Nagar (RR Nagaar) in Karnataka:

The elections in Karnataka was held on May 12th but due to the confiscation on mass fake IDs, the election in Rajarajeshwari Nagar was postponed. So it was held on May 28th and even though the Congress has won this seat, the BJP has increased its performance tremendously.

RR Nagar is a strong belt of DK Shivkumar and his brother DK Suresh, but the Congress candidate won by a margin of 25492 votes.

Congress candidate Munirathna secured 108064, BJP’s Thulsi Muniraju Gowda Secured 82572 and the Karnataka chief minister’s JDS Candidate G H Ramachandra secured 60380.

Maheshthala in West Bengal:

Even though the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has won in West Bengal, the BJP has made massive inroads. Recently, 15 BJP karyakarthas has laid down their lives due to the violence done by TMC goons, yet the BJP hasn’t failed to send shivers to the TMC.

Palus Kadegaon in Maharashtra:

This assembly constituency was retained by the Congress party.

Jokihat in Bihar:

  • This seat was won by RJD’s candidate under the leadership of Lalu Padav’s son.
  • This seat was vacant after Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal-United (JDU) lawmaker had quit and joined the RJD.

Chenganur in Kerala:

  • Even though the CPM won, the BJP succeeded in securing a huge chunk of votes.
  • The BJP candidate and former state president PS Sreedharan Pillai came third with 35,270 votes.

Noorpur in Uttar Pradesh:

The Samajwadi Party won the Noorpur Assembly bypoll in Uttar Pradesh.

Ampati in Meghalaya:

  • In this constituency, the Congress party won with just 3191 votes.
  • The Congress candidate Miani D Shira had secured 14259 votes. Whereas Clement G Momin from NPP secured 11068 votes.
  • This seat was previous won by the Congress party.

Tharali in Uttarakhand:

  • BJP succeeded in retaining this constituency once again.
  • BJP’s Munni Devi Shah had secured 7995 votes.

Even after all the opposition parties have joined hands, BJP has increased its vote base!

  • One question every voter should ask. If BJP under PM Modi is getting weak, why all the opposition leaders are uniting?
  • Yes, it is clear that PM Modi is not getting weak but his governance is totally ruining the dreams of Rahul Gandhi led Congress.
  • Congress and allies have got minority vote banks, it has clear cut edge in caste based vote bank, still, Mr Modi is giving them a tough fight. What does it suggest?
  • In the recently concluded West Bengal Panchayat elections, the BJP emerged as the second largest winner but Congress and the communist party that ruled West Bengal for three decades had totally vanished.
  • Even in Kerala, BJP is increasing its vote base and is giving a hint that it will repeat a Tripura like stunner in Kerala in the next assembly elections.

Still, you think Prime Minister Modi’s BJP is losing?

Still, you think the Indians are angry with the BJP?

Still, you think the Congress party has any future in India?


 

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