Politics

Accurate exit poll from Postcard News!!! Congress is gaining in the Gujarat elections but……………

Team Postcard carried out a detailed survey of Gujarat by interacting with 85000 voters from 93 Vidhan Sabha constituency

Gujarat elections are over and the fate of 182 candidates are sealed in the Electronic Voting Machine (EVM). Few followed the usual trend of canvassing i.e. the roadways whereas the legends interacted with the people through sea route.

From now, the prediction game begins and most of the genuine surveys have said that PM Modi’s BJP is going to emerge as a winner. Once again, the Shiv-Bhakt Rahul Gandhi has to taste defeat once again in his political career. Now the question is, how many seats will be bagged by major political parties in Gujarat.

Team Postcard carried out a detailed survey of Gujarat by interacting with 85000 voters from 93 Vidhan Sabha constituency.

Party Seats
BJP 98-105
Congress 60-65
Others 10-15
Total 182

What is the ground reality? Why has Postcard News given BJP fewer seats when compared to surveys of mainstream media?

The only reason why Team Postcard has given fewer seats for BJP is that when we interacted with 85000 respondents, they revealed certain facts that were against the BJP.  We have presented them below!!!

  • The main reason for BJP’s setback is PM Modi is no more a Gujarat CM. No doubt that Gujarat is clearly controlled by BJP but after the exit of PM Modi in 2014, Gujaratis are missing Narendra Modi.
  • Anandi Ben couldn’t manage the state as a Chief Minister. PM Modi had earlier set high standards due to his reforms but Anandi Ben couldn’t overtake or even match the dynamic working style of PM Modi.
  • Patidar agitation has made a dent in BJP vote base. People confessed that they are hurt due to BJP’s way of handling Patidar community.
  • Demonetisation and GST had also had its effect on BJP’s vote share. Yes, most numbers of traders are from Gujarat, especially from Surat. When interacted, several traders revealed that their business has faced a slow down due the weak implementation of GST. We cannot deny the fact that this will benefit the Congress party.
  • Another prominent factor is that this is a two-way battle i.e. only BJP and Congress are the major powers. So there are no chances of votes getting shared between 3-4 smaller parties like it happened in Uttar Pradesh where BJP benefitted from BSP, SP, AIMIM and many more small parties.

Congress is confident of gaining more seats, do you know why?

  • Congress loves to create blunders but we need to understand why Congress has appointed Rahul Gandhi as a Party president in a hurry. Is the party so dumb that they would gift Rahul Gandhi with a defeat after ascending the throne as Congress president? Definitely no.
  • Congress is 100 percent sure that they are going to gain in Gujarat. If Congress party gets even a single seat more than the 2012 election, then it will be projected as the victory of Rahul Gandhi. That’s’ why Congress has pushed Rahul Gandhi into the battlefield months ahead of the election.

Exit polls from other media

 Channels BJP Congress Others
Times Now  109  70  03
Republic TV  108  74  00
 CNN IBN  109  70  03
 India Today  99-113  68-82  1-4
 India News  110-120  65-75  02-04
 News 18  108  74  
 ABP-CSDS  117  64  01
 VDP Associates  143  37  

What are the factors that are benefitting BJP?

The votes lost from Patidar agitation will be gained in the form of Muslims votes. Triple Talaq has helped BJP to penetrate into Muslim vote base which was previously held by Congress party. The Muslim women are had inclined towards BJP this time. Women of Gujarat, especially rural women, were seen voting massively for PM Modi’s BJP for UJJWALA & Jan Dhan scheme.

Even though the three young leaders –Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mewani- have been successful in breaching the vote base of BJP, the last minute blunders of these three helped the BJP. After secretly meeting Rahul Gandhi and Robert Vadra in a five-star hotel, the trust of Patidar Community on Hardik Patel was lost. Alpesh Thakore spoilt his reputation with his “imported mushroom” gaffe where he alleged that PM Modi consumed imported mushroom worth Rs 4 lakh daily (One mushroom cost Rs 80,000). The adopted son of Gauri Lankesh, Mr Jignesh Mewani was exposed after he received funds from pro-terror outfits.

In the 2012 assembly elections, BJP had won 116 under the leadership of then Mr Narendra Modi and the Congress had to be content with just 60 seats. Even if Congress wins a seat more than 2012, it will be projected as Rahul Gandhi’s victory.

After looking at the above statistics, one thing which is crystal clear is that BJP will once again ascend to the throne of Gujarat. Even after being in power for 22 years, winning it again indicates that BJP had truly followed the path of development (Vikas). It may be in the field if education, technology or business, the state of Gujarat has set a benchmark to other states.

Even after 22 years, Congress had not come up as a tough competitor and this gives rise to a question whether Congress lacks efficient leaders?


Hansika Raj

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