Opinion

An analysis on why the Modi government will win more than 300 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections

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All the prominent surveys that has taken place in India this year has predicted that the Modi government will retain the throne without any trouble. There’s no doubt in that and I would like to add that BJP will easily succeed in bagging more than 300 seats.

There are two reasons for this. Firstly there is not even a single corruption charges on the Modi government even though it has been 4 years since its inception: Let us ignore the frequent lies of Rahul Gandhi saying Modi government is corrupt. It’s like Hafeez Saeed calling India a terrorist state.

Secondly, when compared to 2014, the Congress led opposition has totally failed in all fronts. May be in checking the growth of Modi-Shah duo or retaining their states. From Mamata to Mayawati, all the prominent opposition leaders were involved only in abusive politics due to sheer frustration of the BJP’s rise in the nooks and corners of the nation.

Now we will analyse how the BJP would win 300+ seats. Note that in 2014 BJP had managed to cross majority on its owns. It will continue once again. Only thing is if in case the BJP seat share reduces in the Hindi speaking states, it will be compensated with increase of seats in other states that were earlier had to crack for the BJP.

  • BJP had won 19 seats out of 28 seats in Karnataka and this performance could repeat as the Congress-JDS alliance government has failed to give good governance and even to strengthen its parties.
  • Apart from Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra has the second highest Lok Sabha seats, 48. In July Party president Smit Shah had given a call to the Party cadres to prepare for elections on their own so that even if Shiv Sena flips side it won’t be a problem. It is expected that the saffron party could win more than 30 seats considering the recent victories in the local body polls.
  • The toughest battle for BJP would be in Uttar Pradesh. This state contributes 80 seats to the Lok Sabha and the party is confident of repeating the last Lok sabha election performance. Yogi Adityanath is the trump card for BJP and if the Ayodhya verdict comes in favour of Hindus, then the Uttar Pradesh would be swept by BJP.
  • BJP is expected to make some gains in Kerala, which has 20 seats. Whereas the survey predict that BJP is still ahead in Rajasthan (25 seats), Madhya Pradesh (29 seats) and Chattisgarh (11 seats) where it had swept past time.
  • After the Gujarat election, there was a feel that BJP’s influence had reduced in the states. But after a prominent leader from Congress party joined BJP recently, saffron party is back to normalcy in the prime minister’s state. There are 26 Lok Sabha seats in this state.
  • Even in West Bengal, which has 42 seats, BJP is hoping to make huge gains. There won’t be a surprise if the party wins over 20 seats party. Amit Shah’s rally was attended by more than a lakh people yesterday (August 11 th). Even PM Modi’s rally last month (July 16th) was thickly attended.
  • Even in Bihar, out of the 40 seats the NDA might will more than 35 seats. The Modi-Nitish duo might outsmart the rivals as Lalu Prasad Yadav is also in jail and his sons are exposing themselves with their poorly scripted publicity stunts.
  • In Delhi (7 seats), Punjab (13 seats), Haryana (10 seats), the fight is open whereas BJP will make a massive gain in the northeastern states. Arunanchal Pradesh (2 seats), Assam (14 seats) , Manipur (2 seats), Meghalaya (2 seats), Mizoram (1 seat), Nagaland (1 seat), Sikkim (1 seat) and Tripura (2 seat).
  • While most of the union territories will be bagged by BJP, in Tamil Nadu (39 seats), Andhra Pradesh (25 seats) and Telangana (17 seats) the BJP and allies are expected to will the majority of the seats.

Hansika Raj

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