Axis-My-India of India Today ran surveys in Uttarakhand, Manipur & Goa. The three states will go to polls along with Punjab & Uttar Pradesh in the next few months.
If elections are held today, the BJP will win the 70 member assembly with 38-43 seats. The party is expected to accumulate 43% vote share. Congress will come second & lose power with 26-31 seats.
As far as the preferred chief ministerial candidate is concerned, the people of Uttarakhand overwhelmingly voted in favour of BJP veteran & ex-CM BC Khanduri with 86% votes in his favour. Current Chief Minister Harish Rawat got just 41% votes.
BJP is expected to rise from a mere 2 seats in the last polls in 2012 to a situation of clear majority of 31-35 seats in the 60 member assembly. Congress is destined to get just 19-24 seats.
If these estimations are to be accurate, then this will be Congress’ second major defeat in the North-Eastern region after Assam. This signifies the further shrinking footprint of India’s oldest party.
Nothing different is being expected from the state of Goa. BJP is set to continue to be in power with 17-21 seats with a vote share of around 38%. No anti-incumbency is being felt in the state & 76% people are satisfied with the Laxmikant Parsekar government.
Congress is expected to get 13-17 seats whereas AAP 1-3. Clearly the big talks made by AAP aren’t seen to transform into results. But then again we’ve seen such self-gloating by the party even during the LS campaign when Arvind Kejriwal claimed he’ll get 100 seats.
Other states –
BJP is seen to emerge as the largest party in Uttar Pradesh with around 170-183 seats way ahead of the BSP & the SP. However in Punjab, the BJP-SAD alliance is expected to lose, although no opinion polls have been released. The reason for this loss is primarily said to be SAD’s failed governance.