Soon after the exit polls were out, the people who belonged to various political parties, other than the BJP, started celebrating. Few even declared that Congress party under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi would sweep the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Let me remind you, this celebration began just after Exit Polls were out. The celebration will turn into mourning after the final verdict is out.
The propaganda website “The Wire” which is popular in the field of fake news even published an article titled “Assembly Elections: Exit Polls Predict Big Jolt to BJP”.
Now there is a shock to all the people who celebrated the victory of the Congress party in the Exit Polls. “An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations” says the definition of exit poll. So the definition itself says that Exit Polls cannot be relied upon because it is based on a certain sample.
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh are the states where the voters are over crores but the exit polls are based on few thousands. This point makes up believe that those who trust on exit polls are just gambling.
Now let us have a look at the history of exit polls in Indian elections. Below we have given six instances where the exit polls had failed completely. At few instances, the exit polls didn’t even inch closer to the final verdict given by the public.
- Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, 2017:
Out of the 403 seat Assembly house in Uttar Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party had won 325 seats and had completely saffronized the heartland of Hindutva, beyond one’s belief. None of the exit polls had predicted this landslide victory of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh.
The Samajwadi Party had managed to win 47 seats whereas Mayawati’s BSP had secured just 19 seats and Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party had put up a pathetic show by winning just 7 seats.
Below is the list of exit polls that didn’t even imagine of BJP’s huge victory in Uttar Pradesh. Few had even claimed that SP, BSP and Congress will make a post-poll alliance and create a government in the state.
- 2016 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election:
This was ADMK stalwart Jayalalitha and DMK’s Karunanidhi’s last election in Tamil Nadu where Jayalalitha’s party had won a comfortable majority in the 234 seat assembly house. Jayalalitha’s All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam had won 134 seats whereas Karunanidhi’s Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) won 89 seats.
But the exit polls had predicted Karunanidhi’s Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam to form a government in Tamil Nadu. But after the final verdict, his party was short of 28 seats, which is huge.
- 2013 Rajasthan Legislative Assembly election:
The BJP under Vasundhara Raje had swept the state from the hands of Ashok Gehlot, savagely. The BJP had won 163 seats out of the 200 seat assembly house in Rajasthan whereas the Congress party had secured just 21 seats.
But none of the exit polls had predicted this saffron wave in the state. It should be noted that few of the surveys even claimed that BJP would not cross the majority mark on its own.
- 2014 Lok Sabha Elections:
2014 Lok Sabha elections will never be forgotten in the history of India. This was the election where the social media had ended the dominance of the main stream media in India.
In this election, the BJP had crossed majority on its won and this had been achieved by a political party after several decades. But none of the exit polls had predicted this massive sweep of BJP under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi.
Other than couple of exit polls, everyone claimed that NDA would not cross the majority mark. But the final verdict proved that they were wrong.
Have a look at the 2014 Lok Sabha exit polls:
- 2009 Lok Sabha Polls:
The 2009 Lok Sabha verdict was a shocker to the patriotic Indians because the nation was tired due to the corruption carried out by Congress party in all sectors. From sports to defense, corruption was rampant everywhere. Upon that, the Congress party was hell bent in targeting Hindus.
So the general public thought BJP would make a come back. Even the exit polls said Congress and its alliance will be short of majority mark by almost 100 seats. But we all know what had happened on the judgement day.
Have a look at the 2009 Lok Sabha exit polls:
- Bihar Legislative Assembly election, 2015:
This election was a shocker to the BJP as the exit polls suggested BJP would win a photo finish but after the final results were out, the saffron party was miles away from the victory line.
Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) had secured 81 seats. Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) had won 70 seats and the BJP under Sushil Modi win just 53 seats.
Have a look at the 2015 Bihar Election exit polls:
This makes us believe that exit polls have a history of going wrong, that too completely. Now coming to the point why BJP might retain its governments because the party had succeeded in curbing the anti-incumbency wave in Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh completely. So the party is said to perform beyond expectations.
Even in Rajasthan, the BJP increased its strength and became stronger and stronger. That’s because the Congress party messed up while the ticket distribution and the BJP used their star campaigners -PM Modi, Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adithyanath and BJP chief Amit Shah- quite effectively.
So our take is that BJP might win Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and form a collation government in Mizoram and Telangana.
But lets weight till December 11th but I would reiterate that the Modi haters will have a major jolt after looking at the final result.