Will Karnataka be the 23rd state of the NDA and Mr BS Yeddurappa become its 23rd Chief Minister? Well, the present situation is said to be neck to neck but the ground reports suggest that BJP has got an upper hand over the ruling Siddaramaiah government.
Political analysts have keenly observed the BJP’s strategies and have revealed that BJP has adopted a unique one this time. The BJP has customized its strategies and is attacking the CM, top leaders of Congress and every constituency MLAs that were under the Congress since 2013 elections, with a customized plan.
At one end, the BJP has succeeded in creating a negative impression about the CM in the minds of the voters. At the other end, they have customized their plan to highlight the mistakes done by the MLAs of Congress in every constituency. It may be by highlighting the series of murders of the Hindu activists in Mangalore and surrounding areas; or maybe the “Goonda Raj” of the Congress MLAs.
How PM Modi’s rallies will swing nearly 15-20 percent votes in favour of BJP?
- In 2013, BJP had suffered a pathetic defeat in Karnataka assembly election by winning only 40 seats out of the 224 assembly constituencies.
- But exactly a year later, in the 2014 Lob Sabha elections, the BJP had decimated the Congress by winning 17 seats out of 28 constituencies, whereas the Congress had bagged just 9 seats. In the 2013 assembly elections, BJP had secured just 19.9 percent votes whereas a year later, BJP had won a whopping 43 percent votes. So, the BJP vote shares had more than doubled.
This stellar performance was possible only due to the brand name “Narendra Modi” and indicated that “saffron brigade” has arrived in South India.
5 days and 15 rallies, this is how PM Modi will change the battle ground in favour of BJP!
PM Modi has kick-started his election campaign in Karnataka today (May 1st) and will hold a total of 15 rallies in the next 5 days. Before the arrival of Congress, the state BJP had done a commendable job by highlighting the scams and atrocities of the Siddaramaiah government.
But it is up to PM Modi on how he will penetrate into the Congress vote bank and turn it into BJP voters. Looking at the present situation, the political analysts have predicted BJP to secure anywhere between 95-110 seats in Karnataka.
But after the end of 15 rallies, the scenario will be completely different as BJP might bag nearly 30 more seats riding on the Modi wave. By this, BJP will easily cross the majority mark of 113 seats.
Is the Modi wave in Karnataka the same like that of 2014?
The answer is yes.
The total number of registered voters in Karnataka for the 2018 elections is 49,682,351 (approximately 4.97 crores). So, there is an increase of almost 50 lakh voters as compared to 2013. 5 years ago, there were 43,685,739 (approximately 4.37 crore) voters in Karnataka.
The voter turnout ratio in the 2014 Lob Sabha election was 67.28 % and in the 2013 assembly elections, it was 70.23 %. The voter turnout might increase to around 75 % in the state due to the awareness scheme was undertaken by the election commission.
From the 5 crore voters, it is estimated that 3.75 to 4 crore registered voters may cast their vote. This is when PM Modi’s rallies hold important because PM Modi has arrived just 11 days ahead of the elections. So his speech will hold a better impact on the Kannadigas than Rahul Gandhi’s.
Through 15 rallies in 5 days, it is expected that more than 30 lakh people will visit to see PM Modi’s talk. Through TV channels and social networking sites, the rally will reach another 50-70 lakh people. So, a voter base of one crore will be targeted by PM Modi himself.
The remaining voters will be contacted by BJP Karyakarthas using the “Page Pramukh” strategy. This is one of the main weapons of BJP where it will allot a single Karyakartha to every single page of voter’s list.
The Janata Dal Secular (JDS) factor will also help the BJP because each vote casted for the JDS candidate is originally a Congress vote, says the political analysts.
So, “Modi Wave” is a deciding factor in the Karnataka Assembly Elections.