Karnataka elections are on the full swing. Both the parties are putting their best efforts in luring the voters. The fight is getting tougher and tougher. Congress at any cost doesn’t want to lose their stronghold as a victory for Congress won’t just be a face-saver or a morale booster for the party, it could also serve as establishing the credentials of Rahul Gandhi as the party chief, ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. On the other hand, BJP wants to cement its position in the South by winning Karnataka and are determined to make “Congress Mukt Bharat”.The third player in the Election JD(s), for it would be a pivotal contest to stay relevant in the state politics.
Although the political pundits and opinion surveys pointed out that there will be a hung assembly and JD(s) will be the king maker but the ground reports are presenting the completely different picture. It is showing that Modi Magic is working and lotus will surely bloom in Karnataka.
According to reports of First Post, if we divide Karnataka into major regions Northern Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Mysore region and observe what could be voting trends in all the regions the result is in favour of BJP.
This region constitutes of 104 Assembly seats and covers 14 out of 30 districts in the state. This region has large population of Lingayats community and is believed to be stronghold of BJP. The BJP Karnataka party chief and CM nominated candidate B. S. Yeddyurappa himself belongs to the said community. Moreover it is expected the Congress move of according minority status to Lingayats and its sub-caste Veerashaiva Lingayats to cut into the solid vote base of the BJP will backfire.
This region constitutes of 33 assembly seats. This region is equally favourable for the BJP and the Congress. Bengaluru, the capital of state has 28 seats out of which 18 are urban constituencies. Bangalore has high concentration of members of the Brahmin community who are traditionally BJP supporters. Also Bangalore is a cosmopolitan city with a sizable population of educated middle class who have origins in other state but have now made Karnataka their home. This vote block also leans towards the BJP. Once again, the region, which has a high concentration of non-Kannadigas voters, is seen as a Hindutva stronghold.
This region accounts for nearly 59 seats. Vokkaligas is believed to be the major population of this region. All the three primary political outfits the BJP, Congress and JD(S) have somewhat equal influence in the Old Mysore region of the state. The BJP and JD(S) are strong in some sub-regions whereas the Congress has influence in the entire region.
In 2014 LokSabha elections, the Congress polled 41.2 per cent votes while the BJP got 43.4 per cent votes. If 2014 vote share was interpolated on all the 224 Assembly segments, the BJP would have won 132 seats followed by the Congress at 77 and the JD(S) at 15.
Moreover, Siddaramaiah known for his polarisation and minority appeasement tactics has evoked extreme emotions across the electorate. Due to his poor performance in the past five years and the Congress organisational vulnerabilities the BJP and its leader Yeddyurappa stand a better chance of winning people’s choice than others.
The BJP has robust organisational structure which is geared up like war machinery. Within past three months, the party has raised an army of nearly 5.5 lakh cadres spread across 55,000 booths. And they can be accessed through call centres and mobilised in a jiffy. They have been trained to respond to a situation and mobilise people on short notice.
And to add to it is the Modi’s factor that still remains intact. However, the electorate has its own way of springing surprises. It appears quite unlikely that the people’s verdict would be as muddled up as being presented by political pundits. There are all indications that the election results would not be that complicated. It appears to be a heading for a decisive mandate for one party, the BJP, a result that may conform to the political trend all across the country.