Opinion

What does Intelligence report of UP police say about exit polls, Who will win the 2017 UP election?

With less than 24 hours for the UP election results, there are many exit polls which are giving clear lead to BJP. The entire media was in hyper mode yesterday predicting the numbers for all parties. Most of the pollsters have predicted BJP will get majority, while few of them have suggested the BJP may be the single largest party.

Now, a new survey conducted by the intelligence bureau of the Police department in UP has given slightly different numbers raising the eyebrows of many.

The report says,

 BJP is certain of getting 186

BSP – 103

SP+Congress – 89

Others  – 28

The pollster says that until now their predictions have been right, except in Delhi elections. These internal report says that BSP may occupy the second position and not third as depicted by most of the channel. It says that Mayawati’s party is said to have done pretty well in few of the areas which may have helped her to increase the vote share. The Muslim votes have split between SP-Congress and BSP. But however it is believed that many Muslims this time have favoured Mayawati over SP-Congress because of her generous nature of giving tickets to Muslim candidates.

However, it is too close to call whether SP or BSP will take the second position. BJP on the other hand is said to get 186 seats, this number is far more less than what has been predicted by other pollsters which have predicted 190-210 seats for BJP.

The internal polls of BJP had predicted over 200 seats to the party, but RSS, the ideological mentor of the BJP has been very conservative and said BJP may get 160 -170 seats.

The best pollster Dr Praveen Patil who heads 5Forty3.in survey, has been consistently saying that BJP is clearly in the poll position in UP, he has said BJP may win 207 seats while SP and Congress would get 120 and BSP may get 64 seats. His predictions in 2014 General elections, Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, Delhi and Bihar elections have proven to be right and his prediction have become most trusted recently.

Moreover, the Congress and SP camp in Uttar Pradesh have started blame game and already there is huge rift in both the camps which is a clear indication that SP-Congress were unable to make any impact.

If the predictions of BJP getting over 200 is true, then truly the credit should go to PM Modi and Shah for ending the 16 years jinx in UP.


Aishwarya S

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