Indian Army crossed the LOC for the first time after 1971 and launched surgical strikes on seven launch pads to kill terrorists on September 28, 29 (night). Indian Army’s DGMO contacted Pakistan’s DGMO to inform him about the strikes.
According to reports, 38 terrorists were killed. Pakistan remained in denial mode about strikes and suggested that those were just cross-border firings. They did the same during 1971 war, East Pakistan surrender ceremony was termed as heavy firing incident.
Anyway, getting back to the topic, surgical strikes triggered several debates. One of them is about possible reactions from the Dragon in case if India conducts more of such strikes.
Experts suggest that India may declare war against terror and attack to destroy only terror camps, like in the recent surgical strikes. Countries around the world would probably not condemn such attacks because almost every nation knows how notorious Pakistan is when it comes to allowing terrorists to operate openly.
The United States, Europe, and Russia would come out in support of India. But, what would be China’s reaction?
In such situation, if China decides to question India, rest of the countries would label it as a terrorist sympathizer.
China is one of the members of the United Nations Security Council, so, even speaking against India’s attacks on terror camps may show that it is irresponsible. Such reputational impact can cause a lot of damage as far as world trade is concerned.
Let’s keep China and India’s aircraft, weapons list and comparison aside for defense experts as I do not have the updated list.
Cannot predict how the Dragon may start its attack, perhaps, they would offer their weaponry to Pakistani army or ask few troops to enter Indian Territory via Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh border, etc. to threaten India to stop its surgical strikes. India will have to answer them on the border in order to push them back.
If India sees too much of damage from Dragon’s side, it would probably answer with the destruction of all major Chinese ports to break its spine.
Thanks to the strong position in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea, India can also manage to create a big hurdle for China by blocking Indian Ocean Route.
As pointed out by several defense experts, China has to manage its border with 14 countries. If you ask these neighbors to share their opinion about China, they would probably compare the country with TV show-Small Wonder’s character “Brandon Brindle.” All these countries are facing some or the other issue with the Dragon. So, it cannot risk moving all its troops to Indian border points.
China wants to exploit Pakistan’s natural resources
Chinese side recently indicated that they want to play hardball by blocking a bid in the UN that would have tagged Maulana Masood Azhar as a terrorist.
Dragon does show diplomatic support towards Pakistan, perhaps, because of its business interests. It aims to drain and take benefit of Pakistan’s natural resources. CPEC infrastructure will allow China to access Gwadar port, which is around 2000 KM from Chinese city Kashgar.
Chinese investment of billions of dollars in China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would be its main concern. Dragon won’t be happy if pipelines, highways, sea links, and airports constructed under CPEC get damaged in the Indian attack. However, it’s smart enough to understand that India has developed a lot since 1962.
On the other hand, China sells goods worth more than around $60 billion every year to India. Chinese companies are investing money in railway projects, tech parks, automotive sector, and so on according to the recent report published by the Economic Times. It can definitely raise its voice to share their concern about workers (Chinese nationals) working on various projects under the CPEC.
Even if the Dragon starts showing signs of war preparation on the border, India would immediately cut off all the trade ties. This will influence the existing MoUs signed between both nations. No doubt that India will bleed, but Pakistan will not only lose war, it will also turn debt-ridden. Pakistani Government will rely more on the Chinese for financial help, and this will actually help the Dragon to slowly establish control over Pakistan.
Dragon is dependent on both nations as far as trade is concerned. Stopping both the countries from war would be in its best interest. If it declares war against India, the country would lose support and bilateral ties with other nations. This would prove to be an open invitation for economic fall down for the country with world’s largest population.
China has banned people from practicing Islam in some parts
Pakistan is a Muslim country; in fact, it was formed for those who wanted to divide India as they were not willing to live with Hindus. China’s reputation is not good as far as treating Muslims is concerned.
In February 2015, authorities in Xinjiang forced imams from mosques to hold Chinese flag in their hand and dance on the street. They were forced to shout slogans that peace in the country means peace for everyone’s soul. They were also forced to take an oath that they would not give religious education to children. In some parts of China, the government has completely banned people from practicing Islam. If Pakistan allows China to take over (Ok, ‘invest’), during the next ten years, we may see Pakistani imams dancing on streets while trying to overwhelm Chinese investors. Dancing imams would definitely make Greek Gods jealous.
Director for the Institute of South and Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies, Hu Shisheng, recently interacted with journalists. Shisheng shared his opinion about the problems that may arise for China if India decides to intervene in Balochistan issue. He is considered one of the best Chinese think tanks and said PM Modi’s Independence Day speech has triggered uneasiness among Chinese authorities and scholars.
Alarm bells are also ringing due to India’s changing attitude regarding South China Sea issue, as well as improved military ties with the US.
India has started taking interest in Balochistan like never before and this is not too good from CPEC investment point-of-view according to the Chinese scholar.
“America is our problem; India was never a concern for China. India wants freedom of aviation and navigation for its national interest. China has never done anything to block that,”-said Hu, while sharing his opinion.
Let’s keep all the assumptions aside because most of the facts indicate that the Dragon may not think about attacking India.
There is no doubt that NSA Ajit Doval (India’s very own James Bond) must have considered about ‘actions and reactions from China’ before approving surgical strikes in PoK. India’s defense forces do not get as much spending power as China, but it’s not the same as it was in 1962. Plus, the nation is led by Prime Minister Modi who will let Army choose the best action plan in case of crisis.
So, let’s not worry about the Dragon, and develop a habit to avoid buying Chinese stuff.