More than anything, the upcoming Punjab election is about the repute & survival of Arvind Kejriwal. Punjab was the only state where he’d won Lok Sabha seats, & it is only here that he boasts of a huge win.
For the Congress, this is probably the only state in the country where it is expected to perform well, so for them this is a much-awaited election. The BJP has small presence in the state& so it’s not got much to lose. Even though the SAD is faced with massive anti-incumbency,the fact that it’s a state-party means that it’ll always have a presence in the state & can make a comeback. For Arvind Kejriwal, this is a question of survival both in Punjab & nationally.
As is his habit, Kejriwal was boasting that his party will get 100 seats in the polls. He had done the same in LS, & we know how that turned out. Irrespective of his claims &polls, the biggest revelation of the real prospects of the party in the upcoming polls comes from a letter written by Sanjay Singh to Kejriwal. The content of the letter reads as follows –
As you know the result of the recently conducted internal survey isn’t in our favour. As it stands today, Congress is well placed on 69 seats, & it is moving ahead on 11 other seats. At this moment, we are ahead of the SAD, but it is possible that in the coming days this situation may also turnaround.
Keeping this in mind, I suggest that you (Arvind Kejriwal) should slowly reduce your number of rallies in the state, & instead bring local leaders to the forefront. In this way if we aren’t able to form the government, then you can be successfully distanced from the result. This is important for 2019.
A party’s internal survey always gives an honest picture. It may not be completely accurate, but it surely highlights the prevailing trend. If Sanjay Singh himself acknowledges that Congress is getting an overwhelming majority, then there is no chance that this situation will turn around on its head & result in AAP getting a majority.
This also signals the rapidly deteriorating image of Arvind Kejriwal. If he can’t win Punjab, a state where he was expected to, then there is no chance he’ll make any impact anywhere in the rest of the country.
Arvind Kejriwal has only been playing communal politics, & even doing things are being seen as anti-India like questioning the authenticity of the surgical strikes & spending time at the house of a Khalistani militant. His party also disrespected the Guru Granth Sahib by comparing it to its manifesto.
Punjab is a border state & faces serious issues of terrorism & drugs from across the border. A majority for the Congress at the very least means a stable government& a party in power that has a national image of maintain. With AAP, there isn’t any such binding. The AAP leaders are being alleged of being actively involved with the Khalistan movement, & India cannot afford such a party to rule a sensitive border state.