Opinion

What may happen to Tamil Nadu politics in next few days, Will Sasikala’s proxy occupy CM chair?

The politics of Tamil Nadu has had more twists and turns than a roller coaster. Now that K Sasikala has been convicted for 4 years and a possibility that she will not be able to become CM for at least 10 years in the future, what are the options open to the MLAs of AIADMK? Will O Panneerselvam now realize his dream of leading Tamil Nadu? Read on…

A few scenarios that are possible:

  1. REBEL MLAs FORM A NEW PARTY: As per the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution, popularly known as the Anti-Defection Law, if more than 2/3 of the present MLAs elected through AIADMK, resign and start a new party, they can avoid disqualification under Defection and have a new CM of choice. In this scenario, if Mr. Panneerselvam can gather numbers, he can form a new party and become the CM of Tamil Nadu, provided he gets the support of 2/3rd of the sitting MLAs of AIADMK and maybe some of the DMK.
  1. PRESENT MLAs SUPPORT THE ‘PROXY’ CM: As is now known, VK Sasikala has elected Mr. Edapaddi Palanisami as the ‘proxy’ CM for the term that she is in jail. If more than 119 MLAs of her party support Mr. Palanisami as the new CM, when the Governor decides to call for a show of hands, he can become the new CM.
  1. PALANISAMI BECOMES THE CM, but REBEL MLAs CONTINUE TO BE MLAs: Since there is more than 2 years left for their term to get over, even though the rebel MLAs have been expelled from AIADMK, they can continue to remain MLAs. In this scenario, the State Government will have a difficult time getting any bill passed, since getting the numbers to pass a bill will become very difficult. Functioning of the State Government will suffer.
  1. MLAs CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN AIADMK, but DON’T SUPPORT EVERY MOVE: Those who have not been expelled, but sense an opportunity to make new ties with O Panneerselvam and supporters, will remain in the AIADMK but will oppose every move by abstaining from voting or changing sides as per the situation.
  1. JUMPING SHIP TO GO OVER TO DMK: Though highly improbable, some members of the AIADMK may decide to shift camp and go over to the rival party DMK. If such numbers are high, then it is possible that DMK might even stake a claim to form a Government in TN.
  1. DISSOLVING OF THE ASSEMBLY: If Mr. Palanisami does not get the required support from his MLAs and if only some MLAs go over to Mr. Panneerselvam’s camp, neither of them will have a majority. In such a case, the only option left, presuming that no one would want to join the DMK, would be to dissolve the assembly.
  1. HAVE PRESIDENT’s RULE: The first option of the dissolved assembly would then be to have President’s Rule imposed and the Governor would have to take all decisions regarding the State.
  1. HAVE FRESH ELECTIONS: In the scenario of No.6 happening without the President’s rule being imposed, holding fresh elections would be mandatory. This would be a golden opportunity for other National Parties like the BJP or the Congress to make an entry into ruling Tamil Nadu. With a weak AIADMK and DMK, both because of corruption allegations, the people might think of having a new power centre in the State. Alternatively, rumours of Mr.Rajnikant floating a new party could come true and we could see new faces in the Assembly.

Though we have always had many challenges in front of us in India, through the years, democracy has always triumphed in India. We wish the same happens even now in Tamil Nadu and that the new government starts a new chapter in the State with zero tolerance to Corruption.

Jai Hind !!! Vande Mataram !!!


Rati Hegde

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