Days before has been really sad for BJP. The results of elections in 5 states came as unexpected shock for BJP and nation-lovers. There is wave of sadness all around the supporters of the BJP. But more than these elections results what is worrying all and the question that is striking in everyone’s mind is, what will happen in 2019? Will these election results affect BJP’s win in 2019?
The answer to this is big NO!!! Those who are thinking BJP’s time is up in the centre let me tell them that tighten your seat belts BJP is going to make a strong comeback in 2019.According to the analysis done by ZEE-VMR even after assembly reverses, NDA will trump UPA in 2019
The analysis is done by ZEE-VMR by mapping BJP’s percentage of votes in Assembly Elections with Lok Sabha numbers from the past and checking how the numbers could tilt. The analysis is based on the assumption that If a party has lost x% of vote share in Assembly elections (compared to previous term), it’s assumed that they will lose x% in the General elections.
Let’s see how it holds for different states
Madhya Pradesh (BJP vote share)
2019 – 50%
Based on this, the BJP ought to win 25 seats in Madhya Pradesh in the upcoming general election, BJP ought to win 25 seats, which will be two fewer than 27 they one in 2014.
Rajasthan (BJP vote share)
2013 – 45%
2014 – 55%
2018 – 39%
2019 – 49%
Based on the aforementioned numbers BJP will win 20 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan, which will be five fewer than last time
Chhattisgarh (BJP Vote Share)
2013 – 41 %
2014 – 49 %
2018 – 33 %
2019 – 41 %
According to the aforementioned data, BJP will win five seats, which will be 6 fewer from 2014 when it won 11
In Telangana, the TRS has managed to rack up a vote share of 47% winning 88 seats and the chances are they will most likely be part of NDA and win all the seats. There are 11 Lok Sabha seats in the state and KCR’s party is likely to get them all.
In Mizoram, given the MNF’s – which is part of NDA and NEDA – dominance, it’s likely to wrest the only Lok Sabha seat from Congress.
North India has a total of 10 states, with 172 seats. In 2014, the BJP won 137 of them and Congress 9. Based on state results, it’s estimated that the BJP will win only 87 seats while Congress will get around 30. If we include allies, then the total count for NDA will go up to 91. However, UPA – which could see Congress tie up with BSP and SP – could see their total count go up to 76. Others, non-NDA and non-UPA parties could get 5 seats.
NDA – 91
UPA – 76
Others – 5
In 2014, the BJP got 22 seats while the Congress got 19. Based on state polls, BJP’s number would decrease to 20 while Congress’ goes up to 26.If we include possible NDA allies like YRS Congress, TRS and AIADMK, NDA’s count goes up to 67. The UPA including Left parties, TDP and DMK is likely to get 62, while others are likely to end up with 2 seats. Of course, it’s important to note that none of these alliances are final and things could change based on mitigating circumstances
Others – 2
East India consists of 12 states with 137 seats. BJP got 45 seats and Congress 14, but the numbers are likely to change to 40 and 22 respectively. Including allies like JD(U) and LJP, NDA is likely to get 54 seats. On the other hand, UPA which will have TMC and RJD ought to end up with 73.
Meanwhile, Western India has six states and 103 seats. Last time around BJP got 78 seats and Congress just 2. The number is likely to go down for BJP to 65 and up to 18 for Congress. The NDA, which includes Shiv Sena and MGP, could get 81 seats while UPA could get around 22 seats.
Predicted number of seats
UPA – 22
Cumulatively, this means in 2019 BJP will bag 212 seats which is 70 less than what they secured in 2014. On the other hand Congress will win around 96 seats which are 52 more than their seats in 2014.Total seats in the kitty of NDA will be 293. While the UPA could get 233 and others non-NDA, non-UPA parties could end up with 17.
NDA – 293
UPA – 233
Others – 17
Although there can be a little change in number of seats in 2019 but all those who think Modi Magic is no more are completely wrong and they will get to see it back with bang in 2019.
Modi followers buckle up and contribute in increasing this number even more. Work towards slapping opposition too hard that they will remember it for generations
Source : DNA