NationalismOpinion

A NAMO TSUNAMI Emerging Which Could be Bigger than 2014 after Demonetization Says Survey!

More than 2 years have passed since Narendra Modi took office. A lot has been done; a lot remains to be done. But surely these last few years have been fascinating for the public as they’ve watched & analyzed every step taken by the government like never before. And it’s but natural that on the basis of their analysis they’ve either strengthened their support for Prime Minister Modi or become disgruntled. Which emotion preys heavier on the other? Let’s see.

Public Sentiment

wave-1

The above graphic illustrates the results of a global attitude survey conducted by PEW research. The stats that need to be highlighted are –

  • In 2011 as the anti-corruption movement took to greater heights, the masses were against the government while the media was supporting the ruling party. In 2016 with the demonetization the masses are with the government while the media is speaking almost in one voice against the incumbent government.
  • The public contentment graph shows that the percentage of people satisfied with the government in the center has risen from a mere 28% (2013) to 65% (2016). The dissatisfied number has fallen from a peak of 70% (2013) to just 33% (2016).
  • The one stat that wasn’t as much in favour of Prime Minister Modi as he would have liked was the 49% saying he gets things done while 33% saying he doesn’t. It was opined that although he desires to do the right thing, the rustic, corrupt & inflexible system doesn’t allow him to make big-bang reforms. But it now seems that with the surgical strikes & the demonetization Prime Minister Modi has overturned that view in his favour within just about a month’s time!

By-polls

The recently conducted by-polls were seen by many as a ‘referendum’ on the demonetization decision as they were conducted just 10 days after the big announcement was made. Here’s everything one needs to know about them –

  • Elections were held on 14 seats (4 parliamentary & 10 assembly) across six states & one Union Territory.
  • In Madhya Pradesh BJP retained Shahdol Lok Sabha & Nepanagar assembly seat.
  • In Assam BJP retained the Lakhaimpur LS seat. The important win was on the Baithalangso assembly seat which was with Congress, but this time BJP defeated Congress by 16,600 votes.
  • In Arunachal Pradesh BJP-backed Dasingu Pul won the Anjaw assembly seat by 944 votes beating independent candidate Yompi Kri.
  • In West Bengal BJP got 21% votes on the 2 LS & 1 VS combined (upswing of 10%) & pushed CPM+ to third place with a vote share of 14%. This was truly a historic rise in BJP’s stature in the state.
  • The biggest surprise for the party came from another North-Eastern state Tripura where BJP’s vote share rose from an insignificant 1% to 21% to take second place after CPM! Congress was totally decimated as its vote share fell from 43% to just 2%.

Clearly the BJP emerged the winner everywhere it was supposed to & even in places where it was least expected.

National Picture

wave-2

 The above graphic displays the results of a poll conducted by 5Forty3 – one of the most credible pre-poll voices in India. The most relevant stats here are –

  • If a national election is held today, then the vote share of the BJP alone would rise by 8% (from 30% to 38%)!
  • Congress would be stuck at around 16% while the cumulative vote share of all non-NDA/UPA parties would be 38%.
  • One important point is that this is a survey done post-demonetization, so the poll has taken into consideration the inconveniences caused to the people due to the move as people have expressed their opinion keeping the demonetization in mind.
  • Also the benefits of demonetization haven’t been seen yet. They will be seen in the coming few months & even if at this moment there is a surge in support of Prime Minister Modi, then it’s for the opposition to imagine how public opinion could further shift in Prime Minister Modi’s favour once the benefits become tangible.
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