The victory of Samajwadi party in both LokSabha seats Gorakhpur and Phulpur that went to bypolls in Uttar Pradesh not only have stunned both BJP and its supporters but also questioned BJP’s ability of how they are going to tackle the opposition in 2019 elections.
BJP has to ponder over it deeply, why this is the outcome in the regions where they were having a stronghold. Is it overconfidence and arrogance of BJP or their underestimation of power of other parties?
Let’s try to analyse the situation which reversed the result of polls.
UP is a state, where caste dominates and decides the winner of elections. Core vote bank of following parties are as follows
SP : Yadavs + Muslims
BSP : Dalits + Muslims
Congress : Few Yadavs, Muslims and Dalits who don’t vote for both parties above.
Yadavs constitute 17% of UP.
Muslims constitute 19% of UP.
Dalits constitute 21% of UP.
Even in 2017 elections, BJP got 40% vote share and these 3 parties together got 49%. BJP was successful is dividing all Anti-BJP votes due to which it got 300+ seats. Otherwise, the result would have been different. Similar is the case in 2014 elections when BJP got 71/80 seats in Lok Sabha elections.
These parties have realised one thing if they want to defeat BJP, then combine and become a single force. After this elections, Congress is definitely going to join this SP+BSP combo to ensure victory to UPA, and you will see Anti-BJP alliance in every state.
No doubt, SP-BSP alliance is behind this loss of BJP but more than the alliance the main power behind this loss of BJP is BSP chief Mayawati and BJP itself.
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BSP did not win even a single seat and in 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2017 also it was able to secure only 19 assembly seats. Everybody thought this is end of BSP but Mayawati was working behind it and answered everyone who thought it’s BSP end.
The bypoll results have proved that Mayawati remains a big force in Uttar Pradesh and her ability to transfer votes in favour of an ally can’t be questioned. The vote share of BSP was transferred to SP. Mayawati didn’t even let anyone guess what’s going at the backdoors and had made her final move just at the end moment.
Just a week before the polling BSP joined hands with SP for the first time in nearly 25 years. Mayawati with just one day to go for the campaigning in Gorakhpur and Phulpur parliamentary bypolls– directed party cadres to hold at least 100 ‘nukkad sabhas’ (street corner meetings) in support of the Samajwadi Party (SP) candidates.
According to media reports Mayawati reportedly instructed a team of BSP leaders, led by her close confidante and Rajya Sabha MP Ashok Siddharth, to personally supervise the campaign. “We have been asked to campaign rigorously as if our own party is contesting,” a BSP functionary was reported as saying by The Times of India. BSP party workers campaigned with flags of both SP and BSP.
BSP booth-level workers spread in the constituencies and launched door-to-door campaign. No big rally, silent campaign was done all under the eyes of BJP.
BJP failed to understand this move of BSP chief and also underestimated the power of alliance. Along with that BJP’s overconfidence of winning the elections is also the factor behind this loss of BJP. People have shown BJP that the real power is in hands of people, not BJP and they can be kicked anytime. So more than anything it was BJP who is responsible for it’s defeat.