Just few days back, there were reports that the Congress has hired a foreign company called Cambridge Analytica to strategize their plans for the upcoming elections in Karnataka and general elections. It was shown that over 68 journalists, bureaucrats and writers were being paid Rs 2-5/month in order to create fake narrative against the central government and PM Modi.
Just as told, there are already many channels and media agencies who have started their job of creating fake narrative against the Modi government and are promoting Congress. This was very much evident in the some of the poll surveys conducted by unknown companies claiming that Congress is winning Karnataka elections. A company called C Fore survey yesterday released a pre poll survey in which it said that the Congress had clear edge over all the other party in Karnataka and they are likely to increase their seat tally compare to the 2013 elections. They also said that BJP will do better than in 2013 elections but JDS is likely to lose more seats.
The C Fore survey predicted that Congress would get 126 seats, BJP 70 seats and JDS with 27 seats. It said that Congress is likely to get 46% vote share which is 9% more than previous elections, while BJP would get 31% vote share and JDS with 16% vote share.
The C fore voter claimed that the survey was conducted across 154 assembly constituencies covering 22,357 voters samples. They said among the gender opinion, 44% men supported Congress, 33% said they would vote BJP, 17% were with JD (S) and 6% support ‘others’. Among the women, 48% are Congress supporters, 29% are with the BJP, 14% said they would vote for JD (S) and 8% support others. Congress leads among voters in all age groups, which include 18-25 (46%), 26-35 (47%), 36-50 (43%) and 50+ (50%).
But the entire survey looks very unrealistic and seems to be an attempt to only build a fake perception in people that Congress is winning Karnataka elections.
Let us logically analyse the facts. The C Fore survey claims that Congress will increase its voter percentage 9% more than that of last time which was 36%. The Congress had got 122 seats when it had 36% voter share, so if there is a drastic jump of 9% in voter share, then how is it possible that Congress will only gain 126 seats? That is just 4 seats more than 2013 elections. So, in that scenario, the Congress should atleast get 170+ seats if it really gains a 9% voter share.
In 1989 the Congress had won 178 seats which was highest in the history, during which the vote share was 43.76%. In this logic if Congress gets voter share of 46% in 2018, shouldn’t it get atleast 175-180 seats?! This itself shows the survey is purely based on assumptions and not on exact data.
The C Fore voter says that the Lingayat division is a boon to Congress, but the reality is that most of the Lingayats in the Tumkur region, North Karnataka region have not been very supportive of the separate religion status for Lingayats declaring them non-Hindus. More than 50 seers of the Veerashaiva community in the Northern Karnataka have vowed to defeat Congress after Lingayats were separated. This again shows how the survey has been goofed up.
The C Fore also claims that 64% of farmers believe that Congress government has been proactive and supportive towards farmers cause. But the highest number of farmer death has been under Siddaramaiah’s regime where over 4000 farmers have committed suicide. So, how can they claim the government to be supportive?! The entire survey looks very vague with no clear details as to how they came up with such conclusion. The C Fore says that they conducted survey in 154 assembly segment, but gives the result of 184 assembly constituencies which proves most of the numbers are just bogus.
But the funny part here is this entire survey was funded by the Congress party which was reveled by the News18 channel. So one can imagine how the survey could have taken place. This is exactly how the foreign company hired agencies will mislead people with fake numbers and fake data.
Dr Praveen Patil who is a well known psephologist and who got Delhi, Bihar, Maharashtra, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Assam and 2014 general elections results right says that Karnataka was almost a waveless election until now. But the Lingayat division may turn the tide against the Congress with Hindu consolidation.
— Dr Praveen Patil (@5Forty3) March 22, 2018
The sheer depth and scale of anti-incumbency against the Siddaramaiah led Congress govt. in Karnataka has probably begun to unravel now like a spring uncoiling itself with vengeance!
— Dr Praveen Patil (@5Forty3) March 24, 2018
His predictions based on data says that the Congress may have committed a blunder with the Lingayat division and anti-incumbency is slowly building up recently.