The Rajasthan election was a total surprise to everyone because before 2-3 weeks of polling the expectations where such that it was considered that the Congress party would sweep the state. Many exits polls suggested BJP might not even cross 50 assembly seats.
However the final result was totally different. To everyone’s surprise, Vasundhara Raje led BJP won 73 seats which once looked impossible. Whereas the Congress party couldn’t even cross the majority mark as it won 99 seats. That’s why it had to take the support of Mayawati’s BSP.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had won 6 seats, Communist Party of India (Marxist) won 2 seats, Bhartiya Tribal Party won 2 seats, the Rashtriya Lok Dal won a single constituency. Whereas Rashtriya Loktantrik Party won 3 and independents won 13 seats.
One might say that Congress party is ahead of BJP by 26 seats. But I’ll show you some data to prove that BJP was not dumped by the Rajasthanis. In fact they showered more love to the BJP than the Congress However, the NOTA button messed up everything to the BJP.
A total of 1,39,35,201 (39.3%) had voted for the Congress party whereas 1,37,57,502 (38.8%) voted for the BJP. So Congress succeeded to win only 1,77,699 votes more than the BJP. Percentage wise, Congress party was just 0.5 % ahead of the BJP.
But then came half a million of the NOTA warriors. Yes, a total of 4,67,781 (1.3%) people pressed the NOTA button. Note that these people are originally the BJP voters. They never vote for the Congress party as they think it is corrupt but they even don’t vote support the BJP just because somewhere for a minor reason they’ll be angry with the BJP.
So every vote that goes to NOTA is a loss to BJP and is equivalent to voting for the Congress party. In Rajasthan, BJP lost in 8 constituencies due to the NOTA. In these seats, BJP’s margin of defeat was lesser than the votes grabbed by NOTA.
Here’s the list of 8 constituencies where BJP lost due to NOTA button:
- Begun, Chohtan, Dantaramgarh, Fatehpur, Khetri, Marwar Junction, Pachpadra, Pokaran.
Among the 8 assembly seats, 7 were won by the Congress party and one by the independent candidate. Apart from this, in 10 constituencies the BJP lost by a margin of lesser than 5,000 votes. So if we calculate the seats lost by BJP due to the NOTA warriors and the 10 other closely fought constituencies, then BJP had a chance to even form a government in Rajsthan, if it had won it.
- Constituency Name: Begun
2. Constituency Name: Chohtan
3. Constituency Name: Dantaramgarh
4. Constituency Name: Fatehpur
5. Constituency Name: Khetri
6. Constituency Name: Marwar Junction
7. Constituency Name: Pachpadra
8. Constituency Name: Pokaran
We should also note that in 12 constituencies the Congress party and other minor parties like the BSP lost to BJP from a narrow margin. If there was a bit more of NOTA warriors, then BJP’s situation would have further worsened.
Apart from Grand alliance, the Modi government has got one more challenge and that is it has to stop their own people from pressing the NOTA button, or lese the BJP might not get majority on its own in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.