What does ‘Satta bazaar’ have to say about UP election results, which party has the edge?

Different exit polls have projected a BJP win in the biggest assembly elections of UP. It is not very often when senior journalists like Rajdeep Sardesai come straight forward on election results, in favor of BJP. Many journalists have spoken of a BJP wave being evident in UP. And for those, who were not expecting BJP to have a clean sweep, a hung assembly was predicted by the media. It was speculated that BJP may join hands with BSP to come to power.

Again, different factors ruled the win and lose game. Demonetization was a priority discussion. Opposition was obviously linking BJP with cash crunch and troubles faced by the general public to withdraw cash. But now it seems that BJP has shut the mouth of opposition. We saw it in BMC election where small traders (from Pune and Nasik) voted in huge support for BJP. The party had a majority share in Maharashtra except Mumbai. We saw it in Odisha Municipal elections too.

So, what is exactly in store for UP now?

While most of us still wait with abated breath on what the final results will be on March 11, as we know exit polls can go either way. Also, we know hung assembly is a possibility, and BSP can even join hands with SP-Congress alliance to form a Maha Gathbandhan.

But, the Satta market is not worried at all. If sources are to be believed, the Satta market has given a clear BJP mandate. It is buzzing with news that BJP will win with a clear majority, and even hung assembly seems like a distant possibility now.

Many media reports have been published recently verifying the facts. It seems that the massive Maharashtra win has affected the party’s on-ground performance in UP, tilting majority votes in their favor.

After five phases of polling in UP, bookies say, the party is expected to win at least 180 seats in various betting markets across the country compared with earlier perception of a hung assembly. “People are fearful of betting against the wave that is still in favour of the BJP,” said one of Delhi’s leading bookies, currently ensconced in Lucknow, as told to ET.

A glimpse of bookie calculations

  • Odds for BJP winning 180 seats is pegged at 1:1
  • For every rupee you bet on BJP winning 180 seats, expect to earn 2 Rs (double)
  • SP may not cross the 150 mark
  • Odds for SP crossing the 150 mark is 2.5: 1 and the party crossing 160 seats is 4:1

Higher the odds, less is the chance of winning. Arithmetic may seem otherwise, but according to Satta trading norms, a person is expected to get higher returns only is the less thinkable happens. If the predicted happens, the returns will be low. Going by this simple arithmetic logic, it is BJP which is expected to win with a 180 mark; therefore the odds are stacked at 1:1.

Well, the Satta Bazaar mood is very different after the Maharashtra elections. Earlier everyone was expected BJP to lose the ground because of demonetization, but now they have a changed perception after BJP wins in local elections. According to the ET report, in early February, the betting odds suggested that no party may win over 170 seats in UP. Odds for both the BJP and SP winning 170 seats were pegged at 4:1 and for both parties winning 160 seats are 2.5:1. But for the BJP, expectations have reversed sharply.

Another interesting report by Sirfnews correspondent spoke to said, “Since PM Modi’s statement on 20 Feb that there should not be any discrimination between Hindus and Muslims, the satta market has witnessed turmoil, with the BJP overtaking the SP-Congress alliance for the first time.” This implies that bookies believe that emotive issues work better in elections.

It is estimated that the betting syndicate this time during the assembly elections in five states will rake in about Rs 10,000 crore by the end of election process,” said the bookie.

Pooja Bhatia


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