The high election drama concluded recently in Karnataka by the Opposition parties have raised several questions on the win of BJP in upcoming LokSabha Elections in 2019. Everybody is concerned about, Will PM Modi and his Government be able to make a comeback in 2019 or Will it be toppled by the United Alliance? Many political experts are of the view that coalition of different parties will not be fruitful for Bhartiya Janta Party.
But ripping all of these apart Prime Minister Narendra Modi has once again proved that this is not going to happen. The latest survey conducted by ABP News-CSDS in 19 states has revealed that the mood of the nation is totally in favour of PM Modi. The survey stated that Modi Government is likely to continue in 2019 along with the support of its allies.
Assessing on the basis of what will the result be if general and assembly elections happen today, the survey indicates that the Narendra Modi led NDA may easily cross the halfway mark required to form th
e Government in the centre with a slight decrease in the seat tally from its previous record. In 2014 Modi Government registered a massive win on 336 seats, the largest being achieved by any party in LokSabha polls in three decades. But this time in 2019, According to the survey NDA will grab 274 seats, while Congress-led UPA will get 164 seats and the other players in the field would end up with 105 seats.
#देशकामूड: Narendra Modi-led NDA is likely to get 274 seats if Lok Sabha elections were to be held today. Congress-led UPA may secure 164 seats while other parties may win 105 seats.
Watch: https://t.co/JQJlKZeiOk pic.twitter.com/DG2ItGyUdd
— ABP News (@abpnewstv) May 24, 2018
In terms of vote share also, NDA is likely to obtain maximum vote share of 37 % while UPA will obtain 31 % and others 32 %. The survey points that NDA has pretty fair chances to touch the magic mark.
The survey is conducted across all the regions of the nation. Revelations made by survey indicates NDA will prosper in all the three regions of Northern India, Eastern India, West & Central India whereas Southern India would serve as a setback to Modi Government. Huge Gain will be recorded by the Modi Government in the Eastern Region.
The survey predicts that in Northern India NDA will get a vote share of 39 % whereas UPA will record 21% and others are likely to get 40% vote share. According to the seat tally, NDA will probably bag 90 seats, UPA 25 seats and others 36 seats out of the total 151 seats
West and Central India
In West and Central India PM Modi led NDA will be taking over the opposition by winning 74 out of 118 seats. While Congress-led UPA will be able to grab 44 seats only.
Eastern India registers a stupendous performance with PM Modi led NDA reserving 86-94 seats out of total 142 seats, UPA -22-26 and others getting 26-30 seats as compared to the previous LokSabha Elections. In 2014 NDA won 58 seats, UPA- 21 seats while others got 63 seats.
This region is of little concern for Modi Government as NDA is not showing a good performance in the region while Congress-led UPA is registering a good performance. According to the survey, in this region UPA will win 67-75 seats, others 38-44 seats while PM Modi led NDA will be at the last position getting seats in the range of 18-22.
The survey has also recorded the vote share parties would be getting in the different states. It has accessed the mood of the nation in the almost 19 states including West Bengal, Rajasthan, Bihar, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. In Gujarat, Maharashtra and Bihar NDA is outpacing the opposition, while neck to neck fight will be witnessed in Rajasthan but contrary to the above, poor performance will be witnessed in Madhya Pradesh. In Uttar Pradesh also the party is likely to score less if the opposition parties SP-BSP unites against it.
Vote share in Different States
Rajasthan is witnessing the close competition between the PM Modi led NDA and Congress-led UPA. NDA is likely to get 45% vote share whereas UPA to get 42 %.
In Uttar Pradesh, the alliance of SP-BSP will affect the numbers of BJP. If they unite they are likely to obtain 46% of the total vote share with NDA getting 35% and UPA 12%
According to the survey, NDA will surge ahead in Gujarat by securing 54 % despite of the increase in Congress vote share of 9 % compared to the previous Lok Sabha Elections.
In Maharashtra also NDA is leading with 48% vote share, UPA – 41 % while others will get 21%. However, the survey stated that it would be possible only if BJP allies with ShivSena and other regional parties.
In Madhya Pradesh there is no good news for BJP, The survey predicts that Congress will get the highest vote share of 49% while BJP and other parties will get 34% and 17% respectively
#देशकामूड – The Congress is performing rather well in Madhya Pradesh where it is ahead of the BJP by a comfortable margin currently both at the Lok Sabha and Assembly election levels: ABP News-CSDS Survey. A look at the voting intention below. LIVE: https://t.co/JQJlKZeiOk pic.twitter.com/3Dr4jlFbLe
— ABP News (@abpnewstv) May 24, 2018
West Bengal being the stronghold of Mamta Banerjee due to her threatening politics will remain so with the Trinamool Congress getting 44 % vote share, BJP-24 % while left and the Congress will be securing 17 % and 11 % respectively.
Bad news also awaits for BJP in the region as people of the state are not happy with the administration of Vasundhra Raje led BJP Government which would result in benefitting the Congress party. Congress is going to reserve the maximum vote share of 44% while BJP and others would secure 39% and others 17%. During the last assembly elections, the BJP reserved 45% vote share, Congress 33%, and others 22%.
There are good indications for BJP in Bihar as people are quite satisfied with the Nitish Kumar led BJP-JD(U) government and there is no chance of Congress overcoming it.
In terms of popularity although PM Narendra Modi’s popularity has slightly decreased according to the survey still he remains the top choice of the people with 60% of people supporting NDA, 34% people supporting UPA and 6% favouring others.
Source : Financial Express