Will Pakistan Launch Nuclear War Against India? Forget About Initiating A War, With Its Present Economic Conditions Pakistan Cannot Even Afford War Materials

Powerless to do anything after Indian scrapped article 370 in Jammu and Kahmir, Pakistan is now going all out to seek help from neighbouring countries and also ‘threatening a war’. Well, it’s evident that Imran Khan is two faced as in a recent interview he said that he ‘does not want war’ but also threatens India of a war in UN.

Nearly broke and facing unprecedented inflation, Prime Minister Imran Khan has been on expeditions to Beijing, Washington and the Gulf emirates.

Imran Khan conveniently forgets the fact that Pakistan is a poor country with poor economy. It cannot afford a war in this situation and Pakistan definitely does not have  enough army to fight the powerful Indian Army.

Pakistan cannot go to war because it does not have the war making capacities. It has no economic support system, it has no money, it has very limited stores and war materials.

However, relations between the two neighbours have remained bitter and peace always since Pakistan was carved out of India in 1947 by the departing British. The two have fought three full scale wars, with the last one in 1971, which led to dismemberment of Pakistan’s eastern wing and emergence of Bangladesh.

In 1999, the two fought a limited area war as India battled to get illegal Pakistani incursions on Indian mountains around Kargil in Jammu & Kashmir. The two lost more than 1,500 soldiers in 1999, and more than 5,000 in 1971. About 93,000 Pakistan soldiers surrendered in 1971, and millions of East Pakistan refugees flooded India, causing economic distress around the same time as the first global oil shock of early 1970s. Pakistan lost all the  previous wars  fought    with    India.

What makes the present  situation even more dangerous is the fact that both countries officially went nuclear in 1998. Even  though there are less chances of using them, they remain a latent threat.

While a war will definitely harm both the countries, it could damage Pakistan much more severely because of the fragility of its economy and state of finances.

Pakistan’s current account deficit (CAD) surged 60% to 4.7% of the GDP, highlighting its inability to pay for imports. Its currency remains weaker and stock markets shaky to any turbulence.

Pakistan’s exports comprising more than 57% came from cotton, apparel, crochet or knitted clothing, and clothing accessories. Other key exports include cereals, fish, salt, leather, sugar, sulphur and cement, making it extremely vulnerable to vagaries in prices, trends or cycles. A 13% increase in remittances from nationals living overseas helped bridge the gap.

The  country that draws comfort from being part of Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) is seeking a loan from International Monetary Fund and prime minister Imran Khan, has visited many friendly countries seeking loans and help, exposing its vulnerability.

The country banks on its close relations with China  as  most of the infrastructure of Pakistan is sponsored by China which also has a secret agenda.

Even it managed fight a war, Pakistan, because of its links and involvement with terrorist groups, which have been actively engaged in other global jihadist wars, will certainly use terror tactics deployed elsewhere. India will really need to up its game and think out of the box to prevent and punish the terrorists.

More importantly, the dirty war will not remain limited to only the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir but will extend into rest of India as well, it remains to be seen whether Pakistan will calibrate the dirty war to try and keep it from crossing the threshold of an inevitable retaliation from India.

Sharanya Alva


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