Everyone’s eyes these days are on the upcoming Karnataka Assembly Elections. These elections are really important for both the parties Congress and BJP from the point of view as the outcome of these elections will either let Congress lose its strong bastion adding another win in the kitty of BJP or will give a hope for opposition to excel in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections.
The question that everyone’s mind preoccupied is Who will win Karnataka? Well, actually who will make it would be finally known on May 15. However, opinion polls suggesting the way votes may swing have started to come.
The latest survey conducted by ABP News- Lokniti CSDS for the Karnataka Assembly elections 2018 predicts BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party and will be in a strong position to form the government. The Congress may finish second, while the JD(S) will likely play the role of the kingmaker. The BJP is likely to get the most number of votes but 2% fewer votes as compared to the Congress.
According to financial express report, Different other surveys presenting different views
Times Now-VMR Survey
Neck and Neck! As per the Times-Now VMR Survey, the BJP is likely to win 89 seats out of 224. The Congress may win 91 seats while the JD(S)-BSP alliance may win 40 seats and others four. In case of a hung assembly, both BJP and Congress will hope for securing an alliance with the JD(S).
India Today and Karvy opinion poll for Karnataka election 2018
The Congress is expected to win 90-91 seats out of total 225 in the Karnataka state Assembly. The JD(S) is expected to win 34-43 seats and likely to emerge as the kingmaker in Karnataka. While the Congress may get 37% votes, the BJP is likely to win 76-86 seats with 35% voted. The vote share of JD(S) may be around 19%.
C-Fore opinion poll for Karnataka election 2018
This agency has predicted a bigger win for the Congress in 2018 as compared to the 2013 polls. Reports, however, say the survey was commissioned by the Congress party itself. The C-Fore Survey said the Congress may win with 126 seats with 46% vote-share, BJP may have to contend with just 70 seats and 31% vote share while the JD(S) will likely finish third with just 27 seats and 16% of vote-share.
TV9-C Voter Survey for Karnataka election 2018
TV9-C Voter Survey had predicted in January this year that the JD(S) will likely play the role of a kingmaker with 25 seats, while the Congress will be the largest party with 102 seats. The BJP may win in 96 constituencies. BJP has fielded old-timer BS Yeddyurappa as its chief ministerial candidate. The Congress currently has 122 seats against BJP’s 40. The JD(S) has 40 seats in the current Assembly.
Although these all surveys are indicating more towards JDS being a kingmaker but still series of political events happening in Karnataka such as (Ahead of Rajya Sabha elections earlier this year, 7 legislators from the JD(S) defected to the Congress—they’ve all been given tickets by the Congress to contest the elections. Then, the Congress has played the caste card by proposing minority religion status to the Lingayats, a prominent caste which has traditionally backed the BJP. The BJP, on its part, has engineered defections from the Congress to break into the Old Mysore region where it’s been traditionally weak) can turn results in any way.
This might drastically alter the distribution of votes for each party across constituencies. Analysing it on basis of 2013, the Congress got 36.6% of the popular vote in 2013, implying it needs a 3.4 percentage point swing in its favour to win an absolute majority. The three parties that now form the BJP together got 32.5% of the vote in 2013, again implying a 3.5 percentage point swing for the party to win a majority.
Three-and-a-half percentage points is not a small swing, but we’ve seen such swings in other states in the recent past. The Karnataka polls could yet be anybody’s game.
For that, Both parties are expected to intensify their respective campaigns in the coming days for the last-minute push. While the entire top leadership, including party president Rahul Gandhi, and social media machinery of the Congress will rally behind Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. BJP needs some sort of magic to cross the magic figure of 113 seats or at least cross the 100-seat benchmark. And only credible face the saffron party can bank upon at this point in time is Prime Minister Narendra Modi. PM Modi will go on a campaign blitz, addressing 16 rallies in eight days before the polls on May 12.
There is a lot of suspense to watch out in coming days. Let’s see whose cap is graced by the win.