BJP Government has always made this one thing very clear to the opposition and even to its allies also that any such move which will be compromising the interests of the nation will not be entertained ever.
Maintaining its stand, BJP has today snapped it’s ties with its ally Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Jammu & Kashmir. The party cited it has become impossible to continue in the government with PDP in view of the growing radicalism and terrorism in the state as PDP has always been sympathiser towards terrorists.
Now after this move of BJP, the bigger question remains here is What could be the possible options of forming the Government in the state? Is it any way possible for Congress also to come to power in the state? or PDP will form Government combining with other regional players? or Governor Rule will be imposed? What would happen?
At present, there are total 87 seats in Jammu and Kashmir Assembly. Of these, 44 seats are needed for the majority. The PDP has 28, BJP has 25, the Jammu Kashmir National Conference has 15, the Congress has 12 seats and others have 7 seats.
Let’s look at all the possibilities that can occur,
The opposition gets united against BJP and PDP, National Conference and Congress all come together,
Congress+ PDP+ NC = 12 +28 +15= 55 seats
Although seeing the current circumstances it seems difficult as the Congress has announced that it will not support PDP.
On the name of Kashmiriyat, PDP, National Conference and some other regional players can form an alliance
PDP+NC+ Others=28+7+15= 50
Sensational alliance of BJP & JKNC= 25+15=40( although short of majority)
It also appears impossible as Omar Abdullah after meeting with the Governor said that neither we were having the mandate when elections were held in 2014 nor today we have a mandate. So we will not support anybody and we are not going to talk to anyone.
Alliance of Congress with PDP, Congress + PDP = 12 + 28 = 40 (4 short of a majority) which also seems difficult seeing the current scenario
If no alliance formation will be possible then the Governor’s rule will be imposed. According to Article 356 of the Constitution, on the failure of the constitutional machinery in any other state President’s rule is imposed but in case of J&K Governor’s rule is imposed for a period of six months under a provision of section 92 of the state constitution and a proclamation to this effect is issued by the Governor only after the consent of the President of India
If this happens, this will be for the fourth time in the last 10 years, the state will go under Governor’s rule.
The state assembly will either be kept in suspended animation or dissolved and assembly polls will be held again.
If the constitutional machinery isn’t restored before the end of six months, the provision of Article 365 is extended and President’s rule is imposed in the state.
Let’s wait and watch what would happen next. Still, nothing can be said but on the part of BJP, the stand of the party is clear that nothing comes before the security and integrity of the nation. The party can’t enjoy power compromising national interests.